{
  "schema": "qz.energy.scenario-lab/v2",
  "product_id": "qz-energy",
  "release_id": "qz-energy-science-5ce3d74e-20260829T082900Z",
  "generated_at": "2026-08-29T08:28:46Z",
  "policy": {
    "forecast": false,
    "stress_test": true,
    "official_plan": false,
    "preset_provenance": "qz.energy editorial stress-test assumptions",
    "probability_assigned": false,
    "note": "Пресеты являются редактируемыми аналитическими допущениями, а не прогнозом или государственным планом."
  },
  "baseline": {
    "year": 2025,
    "generation_twh": 123.1,
    "installed_capacity_gw": 25.3142,
    "generation_metric_id": "power_generation_2025",
    "capacity_metric_id": "kegoc_total_installed_capacity_2025",
    "generation_source_url": "https://www.gov.kz/memleket/entities/energo/activities/215?lang=ru",
    "capacity_source_url": "https://ar2024.kegoc.kz/en/industry-structure.html"
  },
  "years": [
    2030,
    2040,
    2050
  ],
  "presets": [
    {
      "id": "low-growth",
      "demand_growth_pct": 1.5,
      "new_capacity_gw_per_year": 0.8,
      "retirement_gw_per_year": 0.3,
      "net_import_share_pct": 3,
      "renewables_share": {
        "2030": 15,
        "2040": 30,
        "2050": 45
      },
      "nuclear_share": {
        "2030": 0,
        "2040": 8,
        "2050": 12
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "balanced",
      "demand_growth_pct": 2.2,
      "new_capacity_gw_per_year": 1.1,
      "retirement_gw_per_year": 0.4,
      "net_import_share_pct": 2,
      "renewables_share": {
        "2030": 20,
        "2040": 40,
        "2050": 60
      },
      "nuclear_share": {
        "2030": 0,
        "2040": 10,
        "2050": 15
      }
    },
    {
      "id": "high-electrification",
      "demand_growth_pct": 3,
      "new_capacity_gw_per_year": 1.5,
      "retirement_gw_per_year": 0.5,
      "net_import_share_pct": 1,
      "renewables_share": {
        "2030": 25,
        "2040": 50,
        "2050": 70
      },
      "nuclear_share": {
        "2030": 0,
        "2040": 12,
        "2050": 18
      }
    }
  ],
  "user_controls": {
    "editable_mix_by_horizon": true,
    "url_state": true,
    "local_persistence": false,
    "export_formats": [
      "json",
      "csv"
    ],
    "validation": [
      "finite values",
      "shares from 0 to 100",
      "renewables + nuclear + imports <= 100",
      "capacity above zero"
    ]
  },
  "formulae": {
    "demand": "baseline_generation * (1 + annual_growth) ^ years",
    "capacity": "baseline_capacity + (annual_additions - annual_retirements) * years",
    "thermal_share": "100 - renewables_share - nuclear_share - net_import_share",
    "water": "demand_twh * water_intensity_l_per_kwh = million_m3",
    "emissions": "thermal_generation_twh * emissions_kg_per_kwh = MtCO2"
  },
  "optional_inputs": [
    "water_intensity_l_kwh",
    "thermal_emissions_kg_kwh"
  ],
  "outputs": [
    {
      "preset_id": "low-growth",
      "year": 2030,
      "demand_twh": 132.614,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 27.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 15,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 0,
      "net_import_share_pct": 3
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "low-growth",
      "year": 2040,
      "demand_twh": 153.904,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 32.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 30,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 8,
      "net_import_share_pct": 3
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "low-growth",
      "year": 2050,
      "demand_twh": 178.611,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 37.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 45,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 12,
      "net_import_share_pct": 3
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "balanced",
      "year": 2030,
      "demand_twh": 137.25,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 28.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 20,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 0,
      "net_import_share_pct": 2
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "balanced",
      "year": 2040,
      "demand_twh": 170.617,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 35.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 40,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 10,
      "net_import_share_pct": 2
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "balanced",
      "year": 2050,
      "demand_twh": 212.095,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 42.814,
      "renewables_share_pct": 60,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 15,
      "net_import_share_pct": 2
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "high-electrification",
      "year": 2030,
      "demand_twh": 142.707,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 30.314,
      "renewables_share_pct": 25,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 0,
      "net_import_share_pct": 1
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "high-electrification",
      "year": 2040,
      "demand_twh": 191.786,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 40.314,
      "renewables_share_pct": 50,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 12,
      "net_import_share_pct": 1
    },
    {
      "preset_id": "high-electrification",
      "year": 2050,
      "demand_twh": 257.744,
      "installed_capacity_gw": 50.314,
      "renewables_share_pct": 70,
      "nuclear_share_pct": 18,
      "net_import_share_pct": 1
    }
  ]
}